i believe prediction markets are the best arbiters of truth, since they force us to see reality as it is - not how we want it to be, because the incentives are aligned for truth-seeking. markets make people put money where their mouth is. when you bet (even if it is play money), you have to synthesize information, think critically, research deeply, and challenge your own beliefs.
i occasionally make predictions on manifold.markets, a social prediction market platform where users can bet on the outcomes of future events using play money, for fun. i'm trying to use manifold more regularly and build my prediction muscle. i'm fine-tuning my skills to make bets on the future, so that hopefully I can make a really large bet someday.
manifold doesn't currently have an option to show all my trades publicly, so i have to manually put them on here, and will continue to update this section of the website whenever i can.
Past Predictions on manifold.markets:
Will Trump win Pennsylvania in the 2024 Presidential Election?: +67% profit.
Will Trump win Iowa by >5 points?: +151% profit.
Which Party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?: +110.4% profit.
Will Ross Ulbricht be pardoned or have his sentence commuted to time served before March 2025?: +38.4% profit.
Will Jimmy Carter be alive when Borderlands 4 comes out?: +26% profit.